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Lower West 28-day Rainfall Forecast
- period
- 28-day
- 12-month
med
low
high
high
high
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high
high
high
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med
med
low
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low
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high
| Chance of rainfall within district | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| nil < 25% |
low 25% to 50% |
med 50% to 75% |
high ≥ 75% |
Issue Notes
The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively slow moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the southwest Indian Ocean, New Zealand, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 25 February to 29 February, 1 March to 5 March, and 13 March to 17 March. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 20 February to 24 February, 1 March to 5 March, and 13 March to 17 March.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 29 February to 4 March, 7 March to 11 March, and 16 March to 20 March.
Forecast Explanation
This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.
The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.
In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.
