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East Coast 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
18
high
19
low
20
21
low
22
med
23
med
24
25
low
26
med
27
med
28
low
29
low
30
low
May 1
low
2
low
3
low
4
med
5
high
6
med
7
med
8
med
9
high
10
med
11
low
12
13
14
low
15
low
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%
low
25% to 50%
med
50% to 75%
high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are five main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, New Zealand, and the southeast Pacific.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 21 April to 25 April, 25 April to 29 April, and 14 May to 18 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 14 April to 18 April.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 21 April to 25 April, 9 May to 13 May, and 14 May to 18 May.

Issued Apr 16

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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