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Home » 28-day Rainfall Forecast » Lower Burdekin Rainfall Forecast

Lower Burdekin 28-day Rainfall Forecast

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
9
high
10
high
11
high
12
high
13
high
14
high
15
high
16
high
17
high
18
high
19
high
20
high
21
high
22
high
23
high
24
high
25
high
26
high
27
high
28
med
29
high
30
high
Dec 1
high
2
high
3
high
4
high
5
high
6
high
Chance of rainfall within district
nil
< 25%		 low
25% to 50%		 med
50% to 75%		 high
≥ 75%

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are four main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, New Zealand, and South America.
Summary:
Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 8 November to 12 November, 22 November to 26 November, and 3 December to 7 December. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 15 November to 19 November, 24 November to 28 November, and 9 December to 13 December.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 13 November to 17 November, and 9 December to 13 December.

Issued Nov 8

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

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